Makeovers v2 — ARPU Targets
For agents: This is the model behind the v2 makeover ARPU goal of $125/month — a 2.5× lift over v1’s realized $50/month. It quantifies what upgrade rate is needed and where the sensitivities lie. The math is a projection, not validated data — populate real numbers in paid-ads-formula §13 as the v2 funnel produces them, then revisit this doc.
Values guardrail: ARPU lift comes from real value delivery (the 7 Building Blocks install + Pro Church Certified scholarship), not from pressure tactics. mission-and-values’s “Yes be yes, no be no” rules out fake scarcity, inflated value claims, or “limited time” framing that isn’t actually limited. VIBES. rules out monetization paths that sacrifice collective well-being (ours or the customer’s) for marginal revenue. If a tactic the model would benefit from violates either, the value wins.
The headline
- v1 ARPU realized: $50/month (on a $49/month base — most churches stayed at the floor)
- v2 ARPU goal: $125/month — a 2.5× lift
- v2 base plan (Nucleus Standard, default after makeover): $99/month
- v2 upsell (Nucleus Complete): $199/month, or $1,990/year (2 months free, ~$165.83/month equivalent)
The 2.5× lift comes from two structural changes vs v1:
- Higher base price. Nucleus Standard is $99/month because the makeover now installs the 7 Building Blocks + full comms infrastructure, not just a generic website. The floor is doubled vs v1’s $49.
- Pro Church Certified scholarship as upgrade lever. Complete includes 3 Pro Church Certified seats ($5,970 value) — only available pre-billing. The scholarship is the primary mechanism to convert Standard → Complete during the delivery-sequence 7-day post-delivery upsell window.
The model
Effective monthly rates by plan:
| Plan | Monthly rate | Effective monthly rate |
|---|---|---|
| Standard (no annual option — discount is Complete-only) | $99 | $99.00 |
| Complete monthly | $199 | $199.00 |
| Complete annual ($1,990/yr) | — | $165.83 |
Define:
c= upgrade rate (% of makeover customers who go Complete)a= annual share among Complete customers
ARPU formula
ARPU = (1 − c) × $99 + c × [(1 − a) × $199 + a × $165.83]
Solving for the target
To hit $125 ARPU, the upgrade rate c varies slightly by annual mix a:
| Annual share on Complete | Upgrade rate needed | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 30% | 28.9% | Higher monthly mix lifts revenue per Complete customer |
| 40% (v1 historical) | 30.0% | Baseline projection — same annual mix as v1 |
| 50% | 31.2% | More annual = lower effective monthly per Complete customer |
| 60% | 32.5% | Same dynamic, more pronounced |
Headline projection: ~30% of makeover customers need to upgrade to Complete to hit $125 ARPU, assuming v1’s 40% annual mix carries forward.
Sensitivities
Upgrade rate is the dominant lever
Each 1 percentage point of upgrade rate ≈ +$0.87/month ARPU (at 40% annual mix).
| Upgrade rate | ARPU | Δ vs $125 target |
|---|---|---|
| 20% | $116.35 | −$8.65 |
| 25% | $120.68 | −$4.32 |
| 30% | $125.02 | on target |
| 35% | $129.35 | +$4.35 |
| 40% | $133.69 | +$8.69 |
| 50% | $142.37 | +$17.37 |
Annual mix barely moves it
A 20-point swing in annual share among Complete customers (e.g., 30% → 50%) changes ARPU by only ~$2/month. The annual discount on Complete is about $33/month equivalent ($199 monthly vs $165.83 annual-equivalent) — too small to dominate.
| Annual mix on Complete (c held at 30%) | ARPU |
|---|---|
| 30% | $126.02 |
| 40% | $125.02 |
| 50% | $124.03 |
| 60% | $123.03 |
The implication: don’t over-optimize the annual share. Get the upgrade rate right.
Boundary cases
- 0% upgrade rate (everyone stays on Standard): ARPU = $99/month — the floor
- 100% upgrade rate at 40% annual: ARPU = $185.73/month — the ceiling
- The $125 target sits about 35% of the way from floor to ceiling — a moderate upgrade rate, not heroic
What the model excludes
Downgrades to Essential (~$49 or $65/month) are excluded from this projection. Essential exists but isn’t offered to makeover customers. A customer could theoretically request it, but the operational expectation is rare enough to ignore in baseline math. If Essential downgrades become measurable (>2% of makeover customers), revisit this model.
Churn before first bill is a different concern. Covered in paid-ads-formula §2 (the 10% decline-at-delivery rate) and §3 (5–10% first-bill refund haircut). This ARPU model assumes the customer pays at least one bill — pre-bill drop-off lives upstream.
Long-term churn / retention is also out of scope. ARPU here is the first-month steady-state — what customers pay when billing kicks in on Day 7 of the delivery sequence. Multi-month retention would lower realized LTV but doesn’t change month-1 ARPU.
What this depends on
The 30% upgrade rate hinges on the Pro Church Certified scholarship offer working as designed:
- Churches go through the delivery-sequence over 7 days post-makeover
- The scholarship ($5,970 value, Complete-only, pre-billing-only) is the lever
- Reply “UPGRADE” is the conversion mechanism
- Email 4 (“Show this to whoever handles the budget”) makes the explicit ROI case to leadership
If the scholarship offer underperforms or the sequence doesn’t convert at projected rates, ARPU drops accordingly:
- Missing target by 5 pp upgrade rate (25% actual vs 30% target) → ARPU ≈ $121, ~$4/month under
- Missing target by 10 pp upgrade rate (20% actual) → ARPU ≈ $116, ~$9/month under
- Hitting target exactly (30% upgrade) → on goal at $125
- Beating target by 10 pp (40% upgrade) → ARPU ≈ $134, well above goal
Validation plan
This is a projected model. The fastest path to real numbers:
- Run the makeover funnel for 60–90 days of v2 deliveries
- Populate actual upgrade rate (Standard → Complete) in the paid-ads-formula tracker
- Populate actual annual share among Complete customers
- Recompute ARPU using the formula above
- Update this doc with realized vs projected — same
last_revieweddiscipline applies
Related
- delivery-sequence — the 7-day post-delivery sequence that drives Standard → Complete upgrades
- paid-ads-formula — first-bill revenue math (different metric: first-bill, not ongoing ARPU). The annual-mix lever discussion in §9 is closely related.
- products — canonical product definitions and pricing for Nucleus Standard, Complete, and Pro Church Certified
- attribution — the runtime where attribution + first-bill rollups live; this is where realized ARPU is measured